US Ambassador’s briefing on the Kenyan situation (18 January 2008)
An estimated 400-500 Americans attended the standing room only briefing at the US Embassy in Nairobi. Here are my notes:
Should Americans evacuate? No need right now. There will still be tension points over the next few weeks, but until or unless something more happens – more widespread killings, the arrest of the opposition, the establishment of authoritarian government, a major civil breakdown occurs, there probably is no need. “The US Embassy is certainly not preparing for this. . . . We are in a crisis situation. There are still some road blocks, some rock-throwing incidents, so don’t be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Take necessary precautions. Watch out for false rumors and misinformation.”
Should US visitors come to Kenya now? “The US Embassy is not encouraging non-essential persons to visit Kenya at the present time. We do not want to worry about them, we already have enough to worry about. . . But the airlines and the airports are open. No Americans or other expats have been targeted”
The election itself? The US had its own 200 observers. The voting itself went very well… It was a model election. But there was cheating in the vote counting and reporting in at least 45 of the 210 constituencies. It was a “seriously flawed” vote tally that lacked accountability and transparency. Both sides were at fault. Impossible to know who really won the Presidential election, but it had to have been by a narrow margin either way. Impossible to do a recount, and a re-vote won’t work. The Electoral Commission was negligent. “The chief officer could not control it. Too much responsibility was placed on him.”
The present conditions? “Both candidates have limited credibility…Neither can claim the moral high ground…each is a mirror image of the other…the people are fed up with both…the violence has been sometimes well-organized, sometimes spontaneous, and sometimes hooliganism….It reminds me of the US in 1968…The seriously flawed vote tally has shocked Kenyans and galvanized the people …the police are doing their job, but do not really want to be involved…they are less of a solid, and disciplined force…The military is more professional and does not want to get involved in a political conflict and so far has not been called out.
US position? “We won’t take sides unless it becomes evident that one side is more credible than the other…But the US is engaged…it is on the people’s side, putting diplomatic pressure for a settlement…The EU has gone too far in its demands and threats to apply sanctions, reduce aid, etc…but peaceful demonstrations should be allowed…the media should be given complete access.
The road ahead? “It must be a Kenyan solution, not one imposed from the outside…some sort of power sharing. The extreme hard-line persons behind each of the competitors are the real antagonists…each candidate professes to want a solution. Election of the speaker in Parliament and swearing in of MP’s shows that a democratic process can still work…but neither side has a good plan for a solution.
Ambassador’s optimism: If candidates can get together by themselves with a neutral negotiator, they can get a process started towards peaceful settlement, and then it will go from there. His optimism is based on (1) the Kenyans who want to continue their regular lives have a big stake in this (2) US influence (3) private conversations that will go on behind the scenes, in addition to the statements being given to the public by both sides in the conflict.
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